23 Feb 07 Vilsack Who?

So Ex-Gov Tom Vilsack has withdrawn from the presidential race only 15-weeks after announcing his bid. He claimed that he just couldn’t contend with the amount of money the celebri-candidates are able to raise and it’s simply become a money game, not an issues and policy game.

On the one hand he is right, on the other that is simply how the game is played. I don’t exactly agree with it either, but it’s the best we’ve got right now. Right now it is the invisible primary stage, all you can really do is hoot and holler and raise money. He just didn’t holler enough, then again maybe that would have been bad too (*cough* Howard Dean).

I think the Democratic nomination is going to become a three-horse race between Obama, Clinton and Edwards rather quickly. Bill Richardson has been able to raise a lot of money, but he just doesn’t have the showmanship, and that goes a long way. Joe Biden might be able to hang on if his foot-in-mouth disease doesn’t act up again. Mike Gravel (who?) and Chris Dodd (who!?) won’t might make it to New Hampshire, but will definitely be out by the Iowa caucus. Kucinich will return to the shire before the end of the year.

That’s how I’m calling it. I wonder what the odds in Vegas are right now?

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Tags: 2008 Election, democratic candidates

11 Feb 07 It’s Official, Obama Enters Presidential Race

Obamania continues with Senator Barack Obama announcing on Saturday, February 10th that he will enter the 2008 presidential race, something everyone already knew he intended to do. This speech served as merely a formality to cement his candidacy. Truthfully, it would have been bigger news if Obama said he wasn’t going to run.

Watch the video announcement.

There is the danger of Obama’s popularity peaking too early and, much like Howard Dean in 2004, he will not have the support to get the nomination. I stand by my earlier statement regarding Obama, but he will certainly have my support.

After his official declaration Australian Prime Minister John Howard (a staunch supporter of President Bush and the war in Iraq) fired the first anti-Obama missile:

“If I were running al-Qa’ida in Iraq, I would put a circle around March 2008 and be praying as many times as possible for a victory not only for Obama but also for the Democrats.”

…

Mr Howard said Senator Obama’s election as US president would be disastrous for the war on terrorism.

“He’s wrong,” he told the Nine Network’s Sunday program. “I think (the March 2008 deadline) will just encourage those who want to completely destabilise and destroy Iraq, and create chaos and a victory for the terrorists to hang on and hope for an Obama victory.”

Mr Howard said a US withdrawal from Iraq by March next year would only occur in “circumstances of defeat”.

This “terrorists want Obama to win” rhetoric will be a card that Republicans (and possibly even his Democratic opponents) will be playing up on the road to 2008. It has been said that this will be the most expensive campaign cycle ever, and it will no doubt be the most intensely fought.

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Tags: 2008 Election, Obamania

20 Jan 07 Hats in the ring.

So Obama’s in.

So is John Edwards.

And now so is Hilary.

No doubt Hilary and Barack have the best chances to win the nomination right now. The Hilary announcement was inevitable, but I fear that Barack did so out of a feeling of obligation due to all of the attention he is getting lately. I just hope this massive amount of support carries through to the end and people don’t give up on him when the opposition starts trotting out trivial facts.

And honestly, I don’t think any of the other potentials have much of a chance.

Obama like what!

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Tags: 2008 Election, Hilary Clinton

23 Oct 06 The Audacity of Hype.

Barack Obama’s recent allusion toward a 2008 presidential run has people from all points on the political map foaming at the mouth over the potential. The idea of a woman and a mixed-raced candidate battling it out for the Democratic nomination has history-making potential, regardless of the outcome.

My problem, I don’t think Barack Obama should run for president in 2008. There, I said it. Now don’t get me wrong, I absolutely love Barack Obama. He’s a great speaker, he’s educated, he exudes charisma and humanism, and right now he has the star power to run a killer campaign and possibly win. That’s right now though, who knows what might be happening in 2008? People are fickle and right now his celebrity status is based less on his policy stance and voting record, but on his race and an endorsement by Oprah Winfrey. I do like what Obama represents, which is change and unity. But is that enough to run the country and take it from shit to shinola?

There is also the issue of his experience, which I know is a cheap shot but it is a fact. Obama has been in Congress just shy of two years of his first six-year Senate term, a term he vowed to serve. Despite his extreme intelligence and ability to articulate himself, he still has very little experience in foreign policy and other aspects of Washington. Then again, perhaps that is a good thing. He would enter the office untainted, pure, and owing very few favors to constituents and lobbyists.

Obama himself seems reticent to run for president in 2008, and it almost appears that he is giving in to peer pressure from the mob. Honestly, if you asked the mob why they think Obama should run for president they would most likely talk more about his smile and 2004 Democratic Convention speech than his actual politics. While this is fine, I fear that this momentum isn’t quite enough to carry him until 2008 and into a Democratic nomination and presidential election win. I do endorse Senator Obama further down the road mind you, and perhaps even as a vice-presidential candidate in 2008. Right now I think it is too soon, despite all of the talk. I think right now it is easy for people to talk big. Talk is cheap, especially in politics. People say they want him to run and would vote for him in 2008 because it is a safe thing to say right now, he’s not running. When it comes down to it though, when they are in that voting booth, will people take the gamble or go with the sure money bet (whoever that may be)?

I think the biggest danger right now is in placing Obama on too high of a pedestal. His current goldenboy status cannot last forever, no one is infallible. As I said the mob can be fickle and at the first sign of weakness or the first mistake, I fear that they will turn on their hero. Everyone has skeletons, and if Obama runs in 2008 I have no doubt in my mind that the Republicans (and possibly even Democrats) will dig these skeletons up and trot them out in order to knock him from his perch. He will be an easy target and if the smears succeed it could ruin any hope for a future presidential run. Once again, I’m not saying that a 2008 Obama ticket doesn’t have legs. They just might be wobbly ones right now. I’m not trying to be negative or a party-pooper, but just trying to look at this possibility realistically.

However, with all of that being said, if Obama does decide to run I will do everything in my power to see to it that he gets elected (as much as one college student can do anyway). I’ll donate money, do some grassroots campaigning and do all of the other things people do these days to support their candidate. I will support and vote for Barack Obama, I just hope everyone else who is talking the talk right now is willing to stand behind him from beginning to end and walk the walk.

Thoughts?

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Tags: 2008 Election, hope